Possible scenario
Le Pen Leads
35% Chance
Marine Le Pen remains the strongest beneficiary of a polarizing runoff map because anti-Macron and anti-left voters consolidate behind the Rassemblement National. Her restored eligibility after the July 2026 appeal keeps the RN campaign unified and limits space for a center-right alternative.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.4%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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