Possible scenario
Slowdown Becomes Policy
42% Chance
The most likely path is that DHS and USCIS treat the 73% plunge as an intentional implementation feature of the Trump administration's immigration agenda rather than a temporary processing failure. Reviews remain depressed while expanded screening, fraud checks, and interagency referrals become standard for naturalization files.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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