Possible scenario
Limited Saudi Retaliation
28% Chance
Riyadh responds with calibrated airstrikes on Houthi missile launchers, radar nodes and storage facilities in Yemen. The action signals deterrence after repeated attacks on Aramco-linked targets, but Saudi Arabia avoids a broader ground campaign or direct confrontation with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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