Possible scenario
Interceptions Contain Escalation
37% Chance
Saudi air defenses continue to intercept Houthi missiles and drones before they reach Aramco sites, keeping physical damage near zero. Riyadh maintains heightened alert around Dhahran, Riyadh and Yanbu but avoids a major new escalation while assessing launch sites in Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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