Possible scenario
Energy Facility Hit
20% Chance
A subsequent Houthi attack gets past Saudi defenses and damages an Aramco-linked refinery, pipeline, storage site or export facility. The most likely version is a short disruption, but markets would immediately price greater risk to Saudi production and Gulf shipping flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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