Possible scenario
Case Stalls
15% Chance
The state persuades the court that emergency relief is unnecessary because the registration backlog was already processed. The lawsuit remains possible as a damages or compliance case, but it does not meaningfully alter the near-term election calendar.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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