Possible scenario
Higher Supply Persists
45% Chance
The US Treasury does not quickly validate traders' expectations for auction-size cuts, leaving investors to price a heavier coupon-supply path. This is the most likely outcome because the department already omitted the anticipated signal and recently relied on buybacks rather than outright issuance cuts.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.8%
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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