Possible scenario
Fed Data Dominates
20% Chance
Incoming inflation, labor-market or Federal Reserve signals become more important to rates than the auction-size omission. In this branch, the supply story remains relevant, but the next Treasury move is driven mainly by expectations for the Fed's 2027 policy path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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