Possible scenario
Treasury Clarifies Support
25% Chance
Treasury officials or the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee provide language suggesting auction-size cuts remain under consideration for the next refunding cycle. This would partially reverse the selloff because traders had already been positioned for a supply-relief signal.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.7%
- Technology +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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