Possible scenario
EU Demand Response
35% Chance
The most likely path is a coordinated European response built around demand reduction, subsidies and storage protection. With Ukraine transit ended, QatarEnergy offline and storage unusually low, Brussels and national capitals have strong incentives to curb consumption before spot prices force disorderly rationing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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