Possible scenario
Winter Stress Escalates
20% Chance
A severe-weather path would turn today’s price move from a warning sign into a broader European energy shock. With storage starting the season at a record low and no Ukrainian transit cushion, a cold start to winter would quickly force governments to choose between subsidies, rationing and utility support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -4.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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