Possible scenario
LNG Supply Scramble
30% Chance
Europe turns to floating LNG terminals, Norwegian pipeline optimization and US spot cargoes to offset the loss of Russian transit and the QatarEnergy production halt. The key uncertainty is whether Europe can outbid Asia without pushing prices into a self-reinforcing winter squeeze.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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