Possible scenario
Republican Money Dominates
30% Chance
Obama's intervention does not fully overcome the existing Republican financial advantage. GOP megadonors and aligned super PACs keep Democrats pinned down with negative advertising in the most expensive Senate and House battlegrounds.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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