Possible scenario
Plea Negotiations Begin
25% Chance
The defense and federal prosecutors begin negotiating a resolution centered on the firearm possession count rather than a broader terrorism or conspiracy case. This is plausible if the firearm evidence is strong but proof of an executable Capitol attack plan is harder to establish beyond a reasonable doubt.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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