Possible scenario
Federal Case Advances
45% Chance
Federal prosecutors keep the case focused on the altered firearm possession charge while continuing to describe the Texas Capitol plot as the reason for urgency. This is the most likely path because the FBI already took custody after the state bond release, indicating federal authorities view the firearms count as the fastest enforceable charge.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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