Possible scenario
Pakistan Border Tensions
18% Chance
Iran links the attack to militants operating from Pakistani Balochistan and demands action from Islamabad. The January 2024 precedent of reciprocal strikes makes limited cross-border escalation plausible, though both governments have incentives to contain it.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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