Possible scenario
Insurgency Tempo Rises
25% Chance
The bombing becomes part of a broader Jaish al-Adl campaign against police, IRGC, and border-security targets. This fits the recent pattern of attacks reaching a decade high, raising pressure on Tehran to reinforce the province.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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