Possible scenario
Communal Tensions Rise
15% Chance
A heavy-handed response could inflame sectarian or communal tensions in mixed areas of Hama and western Syria. The new authorities face the challenge of targeting former regime cells without alienating Alawite communities or other minorities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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