Possible scenario
Assadist Insurgency Expands
25% Chance
The ambush may be part of a wider campaign by former Assad loyalists, especially after the September arrests of former air force officers. A pattern of attacks on checkpoints and convoys would force the new Syrian authorities to divert resources from consolidation to counterinsurgency.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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