Possible scenario
Sustained Houthi Campaign
30% Chance
The Houthis continue targeting Saudi energy and government-linked sites, seeking leverage after the breakdown of the prior cease-fire track. Saudi output remains mostly intact at first, but the probability of a serious supply disruption rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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