Possible scenario
Contained Security Incident
38% Chance
Saudi authorities and Aramco report no major operational damage from the second claimed Riyadh attack. Markets treat the incident as a reminder of elevated Gulf risk rather than a confirmed supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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