Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the United States, and regional intermediaries push both sides back toward limited de-escalation. The Houthis may still claim victory, but Saudi Arabia prioritizes restoring deterrence without a wider war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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