Possible scenario
Runoff Narrative Shifts
20% Chance
The allegation becomes a dominant campaign theme because it connects directly to Lula's long-running corruption vulnerabilities. In a tight runoff, even a modest polling move could change expectations for the second round and affect Brazil-linked assets more than global markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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