Possible scenario
Inquiry Opens
28% Chance
The PGR decides the allegation warrants a formal inquiry, increasing legal and campaign pressure on Lula in the final runoff stretch. The proceeding is politically significant but remains far from a conviction or election annulment, limiting immediate cross-market effects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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