Possible scenario
PGR Contains Dispute
42% Chance
Brazil's Prosecutor General's Office treats Daniel Vorcaro's allegation as an evidentiary dispute rather than an immediate electoral crime case. With Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro already in a tight runoff, the claim remains politically useful but does not materially alter the institutional calendar.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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