Possible scenario
Global AI Derating
20% Chance
The Korean selloff becomes a broader reassessment of AI capital spending and semiconductor earnings expectations. Taiwan, Japan, and US mega-cap technology shares fall as investors reduce exposure to the entire AI hardware chain.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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