Possible scenario
Contained Korea Rout
40% Chance
The most likely path is a disorderly but still country-focused selloff, with Korea's tech-heavy market absorbing most of the stress. Foreign investors continue selling Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, but the move does not become a full global liquidity event.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
- Finance -1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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