Possible scenario
Russian Salvo Escalation
27% Chance
Russia may interpret Ukrainian air-defense shortages and alleged intelligence gaps as an opportunity to intensify ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv and other cities. This would not necessarily widen the war beyond Ukraine, but it would raise near-term geopolitical risk and demand for missile-defense systems.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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