Possible scenario
Intelligence Rift Deepens
20% Chance
The allegation of a US intelligence cutoff creates a second front in the crisis: political uncertainty over how much warning data Washington will provide before Ukrainian strikes or Russian retaliation. This scenario centers on alliance management rather than direct military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.