Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
38% Chance
The most likely path is an accelerated Western effort to close Ukraine's air-defense gap after ballistic missile strikes expose Kyiv's vulnerability. The September Patriot deal gives allies a practical channel to send interceptors, launchers, and radar support without a dramatic change in the war's scope.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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