Contagion Broadens
−2.8%
The least likely but material risk is that the momentum crash spills into global risk assets, emerging-market positioning, and dollar funding. The trigger remains hedge-fund technology selling, but the market narrative shifts toward leverage, liquidity, and cross-border redemption risk.
What it moves
- Technology−3.6%
- Non-Energy Materials−2.0%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.