Possible scenario
EU Holds Firm
20% Chance
The EU may decide that strategic autonomy and reduced dependence on Elon Musk-controlled infrastructure outweigh US pressure. This would accelerate Project Bromo and benefit European satellite operators while imposing a clearer valuation discount on SpaceX's European access.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Telecommunications +0.5%
Tickers
- SPCX-4.6%
- VSAT+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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