Possible scenario
Negotiated Starlink Carveout
40% Chance
The most likely path is a rapid diplomatic off-ramp because Ukraine's battlefield communications make a prolonged Starlink fight politically costly for both Washington and Brussels. The EU preserves its regulatory stance but narrows implementation to avoid an immediate operational rupture.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Telecommunications +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- SPCX+3.2%
- VSAT-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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