Possible scenario
Government Holds Line
30% Chance
Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues framing the dispute as a defense of election integrity while the Election Commission proceeds with re-registration. Security deployments and selective concessions contain unrest without resolving the legitimacy dispute.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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