Possible scenario
Escalation And Crackdown
22% Chance
The confrontation worsens as protests spread beyond opposition strongholds and the central government relies more heavily on security forces. This would shift the story from an election-administration dispute into a broader democratic-legitimacy and public-order crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.2%
- Technology -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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