Possible scenario
Court-Brokered Rollback
38% Chance
The Supreme Court intervenes before the confrontation becomes a deeper institutional crisis, pushing the Election Commission toward review, transparency and partial restoration of deleted voters. This is plausible because the scale of 130 million removals creates legal exposure even if the government continues defending the process publicly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.