Possible scenario
Winter Tightness Deepens
25% Chance
The spot-price jump signals a more durable supply-demand imbalance before winter. LNG procurement, fuel inventories, and delayed nuclear restarts become the central variables for Japanese power prices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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