Possible scenario
Weather Spike Fades
40% Chance
The four-year high proves mostly weather-driven after 34 days of record Tokyo rainfall disrupted demand patterns and grid operations. Cooler, clearer conditions and normal plant availability bring spot prices down without major government intervention.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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