Bipartisan Bargaining

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The size of the Democratic House win encourages both parties to look for limited deals that can be sold as pragmatic. The most plausible areas are appropriations, border funding, permitting reform, disaster relief, and defense or Ukraine-related packages.

What it moves

Industrials+0.9%
Energy+0.4%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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