Possible scenario
Lula Rebuilds Majority
24% Chance
Lula’s Workers’ Party reframes the race around democracy, social transfers, and Bolsonaro’s legal vulnerability. The market begins to price a less investor-friendly outcome than the first-round reaction implied, particularly for state-linked assets and banks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Energy -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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