Possible scenario
Courts Reframe Race
21% Chance
Bolsonaro’s first-round vote creates a direct collision between electoral legitimacy, his 2030 office ban, and the 2025 prison sentence. The Superior Electoral Court and Supreme Federal Court become decisive market variables, with investors distinguishing a legal stay from a forced substitution or delay.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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