Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Momentum Holds
42% Chance
Bolsonaro’s first-round showing convinces investors that a market-friendlier policy mix is the base case, despite unresolved legal and institutional risks from his prior ban and prison sentence. Centrist parties and agribusiness-aligned lawmakers move toward his camp, sustaining the Brazil risk-on trade into the runoff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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