Possible scenario
PTI Unrest Widens
26% Chance
The Senate approval hardens PTI opposition and turns the KP emergency into a national legitimacy crisis. Demonstrations spread from Peshawar and Mardan to Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi, increasing pressure on police and courts while distracting the federal government from the security campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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