Possible scenario
Border Escalation Returns
20% Chance
The emergency does not remain a purely domestic issue, as Pakistani operations against TTP networks trigger renewed friction with the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan. Border closures and artillery exchanges revive concerns about a wider Durand Line confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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