Possible scenario
Controlled Security Takeover
38% Chance
The federal emergency administration and Pakistan Army consolidate control in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, focusing on Peshawar, Khyber, North Waziristan and Bajaur. PTI protests continue but remain localized, while the state frames the takeover as a security response to TTP attacks and Durand Line clashes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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