Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Expands
25% Chance
Riyadh responds with a larger air campaign against Ansarallah missile storage, launch crews, and drone units in Yemen. The U.S. supports Saudi air defense and intelligence but initially avoids direct strikes on Iranian assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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