Possible scenario
Energy Risk Broadens
18% Chance
The airbase strike is followed by renewed threats or attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, raising the risk premium in crude markets. Even limited damage would matter because recent Houthi claims already named Riyadh, Yanbu, and Saudi airbases as targets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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