Possible scenario
Contained Airbase Strike
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Saudi and U.S.-supplied air defenses intercept most missiles or limit damage at Prince Sultan Airbase. Riyadh avoids a broad escalation while reinforcing key bases, oil sites, and population centers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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