• 

  42%

  +0.2%

  Limited Coalition Integration

  Saudi Arabia uses Syrian personnel mainly for advisory, air-defense support, and rear-area security rather than major offensive operations in Yemen. This is the most likely path because Riyadh wants added manpower and Arab political cover without triggering a direct Saudi-Iran confrontation.

  Finance +0.2% · Consumer Services +0.2% · Energy +0.2%

• 

  28%

  −1.2%

  Houthi Retaliation Expands

  The Houthis frame the Syrian deployment as foreign intervention and answer with larger missile, drone, or maritime attacks. This path is plausible because the group has already rejected talks, attacked Riyadh airport, and reportedly benefits from Iranian targeting intelligence.

  Energy +1.6% · Consumer Services −0.8% · Finance −0.6%

• 

  18%

  −1.4%

  Iran-Linked Escalation

  Riyadh publicly ties new Houthi attacks to Iranian targeting support and coordinates a stronger response with Washington and regional partners. This is less likely than contained escalation, but the existing timeline already includes reported Iranian intelligence support to the Houthis.

  Consumer Services −1.6% · Energy +1.3% · Finance −1.2%

• 

  12%

  +0.7%

  Diplomatic Pause Emerges

  The Syrian deployment creates leverage for Riyadh but also prompts Oman, the UN, and Arab League states to press for a pause before the conflict widens. This is the least likely near-term path because the Houthis have recently rejected talks, but regional governments have strong incentives to prevent attacks on Saudi infrastructure.

  Consumer Services +0.8% · Energy −0.6% · Finance +0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.