Possible scenario
Political backlash limits reach
20% Chance
The rescission becomes a prominent issue in congressional oversight, state attorney-general actions, and 2026 campaign messaging. Even if the federal rule remains formally rescinded, pressure from universities, teachers’ unions, and state governments limits how uniformly it is implemented.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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